把 2021-11-08 顶 与 2025-10-06 顶 对齐到同一原点 t=0（2017 周期作浅灰参照），归一化到峰值=100，逐日追踪当前走势相对历史周期的偏离。
三条曲线各自的峰值都被拉到 t=0、纵轴 100%。红线（当前）在蓝线（2021周期）之上=当前比 2021 年同期抗跌。横轴每格两行：上行蓝色 = 2021 周期的年-月，下行红色 = 当前周期的年-月；红色标签超过今日之后是按天数等距映射出的月份（不是已发生的数据）。浅灰为 2017 周期参照。鼠标悬停可同时读出三段行情在同一 T 上的位置；可框选缩放。
各序列起点：2021 周期=顶前 750 天，2017 周期=顶前 410 天（数据所限），当前=2024-01-01。
当前回撤 − 2021年同期回撤（单位：百分点）。曲线向上=正在跑赢 2021 年剧本，向下=正在向历史路径靠拢甚至更弱。这条线的斜率比绝对点位更能说明问题。
三段含义不同，不要合并阅读：基准带是两源预测收敛；下沿是形态外推的更深情形；上沿是浅底情形（未充分出清）。
| 批次 | 仓位 | 触发条件 | 性质 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 试探仓 | ≤10% | 当前已满足 | 左侧 |
| 主仓 1 | 20~30% | MVRV<1 + NUPL<0 + F&G<10 | — |
| 主仓 2 | 20~30% | SOPR 穿 1 + 投降尖峰后 2~4 周 + 费率回正 | — |
| 预留仓 | 灵活 | 带内按月定投 | — |
| 日期 | BTC收盘 | 日涨跌% | 距峰T | 当前回撤% | 2021同期% | 相对强弱pp | 2021对应日 | 69,040.81 | +6.74% | 317 | -44.66% | -72.55% | +27.89 | 2022-09-21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | 64,680.71 | +0.27% | 316 | -48.15% | -72.04% | +23.89 | 2022-09-20 |
| 2026-08-17 | 64,506.25 | +2.69% | 315 | -48.29% | -71.07% | +22.78 | 2022-09-19 |
| 2026-08-16 | 62,818.65 | -0.33% | 314 | -49.65% | -71.26% | +21.61 | 2022-09-18 |
| 2026-08-15 | 63,024.32 | +0.08% | 313 | -49.48% | -70.21% | +20.73 | 2022-09-17 |
| 2026-08-14 | 62,975.59 | -0.67% | 312 | -49.52% | -70.74% | +21.22 | 2022-09-16 |
| 2026-08-13 | 63,402.17 | -0.00% | 311 | -49.18% | -70.84% | +21.66 | 2022-09-15 |
| 2026-08-12 | 63,402.43 | -0.24% | 310 | -49.18% | -70.04% | +20.87 | 2022-09-14 |
| 2026-08-11 | 63,551.88 | -0.56% | 309 | -49.06% | -69.96% | +20.90 | 2022-09-13 |
| 2026-08-10 | 63,910.59 | -1.44% | 308 | -48.77% | -66.89% | +18.12 | 2022-09-12 |
| 2026-08-09 | 64,844.89 | -0.09% | 307 | -48.02% | -67.78% | +19.76 | 2022-09-11 |
| 2026-08-08 | 64,904.69 | +0.04% | 306 | -47.97% | -67.91% | +19.94 | 2022-09-10 |
| 2026-08-07 | 64,880.19 | +0.96% | 305 | -47.99% | -68.36% | +20.36 | 2022-09-09 |
| 2026-08-06 | 64,262.11 | -0.52% | 304 | -48.49% | -71.39% | +22.90 | 2022-09-08 |
| 2026-08-05 | 64,597.50 | +0.85% | 303 | -48.22% | -71.45% | +23.23 | 2022-09-07 |
| 2026-08-04 | 64,055.95 | +0.94% | 302 | -48.65% | -72.12% | +23.47 | 2022-09-06 |
| 2026-08-03 | 63,460.90 | -0.03% | 301 | -49.13% | -70.68% | +21.55 | 2022-09-05 |
| 2026-08-02 | 63,482.00 | +1.15% | 300 | -49.11% | -70.42% | +21.31 | 2022-09-04 |
| 2026-08-01 | 62,763.32 | -0.08% | 299 | -49.69% | -70.65% | +20.96 | 2022-09-03 |
| 2026-07-31 | 62,813.75 | -2.95% | 298 | -49.65% | -70.44% | +20.80 | 2022-09-02 |
| 2026-07-30 | 64,725.31 | +1.28% | 297 | -48.12% | -70.21% | +22.09 | 2022-09-01 |
| 2026-07-29 | 63,908.17 | +0.06% | 296 | -48.77% | -70.33% | +21.55 | 2022-08-31 |
| 2026-07-28 | 63,871.36 | +0.23% | 295 | -48.80% | -70.70% | +21.90 | 2022-08-30 |
| 2026-07-27 | 63,724.90 | -2.47% | 294 | -48.92% | -69.96% | +21.04 | 2022-08-29 |
| 2026-07-26 | 65,340.30 | +1.60% | 293 | -47.62% | -70.97% | +23.34 | 2022-08-28 |
| 2026-07-25 | 64,311.81 | +0.33% | 292 | -48.45% | -70.34% | +21.89 | 2022-08-27 |
| 2026-07-24 | 64,098.50 | -1.45% | 291 | -48.62% | -70.01% | +21.40 | 2022-08-26 |
| 2026-07-23 | 65,044.81 | -1.60% | 290 | -47.86% | -68.03% | +20.17 | 2022-08-25 |
| 2026-07-22 | 66,100.80 | -0.61% | 289 | -47.01% | -68.34% | +21.32 | 2022-08-24 |
| 2026-07-21 | 66,505.12 | +1.95% | 288 | -46.69% | -68.14% | +21.45 | 2022-08-23 |